Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 21 Apr 2010 06:00 to Thu 22 Apr 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 20 Apr 2010 22:25
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina mainly for large hail and to the lesser extent for marginally severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for Portugal mainly for large hail.
A level 1 was issued for Morocco and Western Algiers mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for excessive precipitation.
SYNOPSIS
Strongly disturbed flow pattern has established over Europe with a deep trough stretching from Scandinavia to the Eastern Mediterranean. An embedded disturbance filled with arctic air will translate slowly southeastwards within the trough. Strong flow at mid and upper levels is surrounding the trough with a cyclonically curved mid-level jet-streak expected over Germany and the Czech Republic by Wednesday 12 UTC. A ridge is expected to cover the Western Mediterranean and a shallow trough is expected to approach Iberian penninsula during Wednesday, weakening gradually.
At the surface a system of shallow lows will cover a vast area from Turkey to Eastern and Southern Scandinavia. To the west a ridge will stretch from the Atlantic to France. Behind the cold front, an arctic airmass will have covered a significant portion of Central Europe.
DISCUSSION
... Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina...
Ahead of the approaching cold front, a slightly unstable environment is simulated over this region during diurnal heating, with CAPE values simulated to reach values in range from 400 to 1000 J/kg. Strenghtening mid and especially upper level flow will keep high values of wind shear in 0-6 and 0-8 km layer (15 to 20 and 20 to 30 m/s respectively) so that well organised convection is possible, including supercells. Detrimental factor for this situation is a lack of synoptic-scale forcing, which would contribute to the destabilisation. Local convergence zones should initiate scattered convection and especially in case of stronger multicells or supercells, large hail is possible or marginally severe wind gusts (latter threat in case that supercells manage to develop). Coverage of storms will rapidly dimnish after 18 UTC.
... Portugal ...
A window for severe weather threat will exist approximately from 12 to 18 UTC with strong mid and upper level flow ( up to 20 m/s at 500 hPa and 30 m/s at 300 hPa level). Thanks to the approaching trough, storms might be initiated in the slightly unstable environment, with CAPE values probably below 1000 J/kg in most of the area. High wind shear values, especially in 0-6 km layer, reaching 20 m/s might result in well organised storms, including a slight possiblity of low topped supercells. A Level 1 is issued due to the possibility of marginally severe hail in the stronger cells.
... Morocco, Western Algiers ...
A good overlap between the instability and strong wind shear will exist over the cerrtain parts of the country, especially more inland than can be depicted in the map. Wind shear values above 20 m/s in 0-6 km will support well organised convection, including supercells. Large hail and severe wind gusts might occur, especially during the afternoon hours. Towards the evening, strenghtening low level shear and clustering of storms might lead to the development of MCS, capable of producing severe wind gusts and on its northern side, also excessive rainfall. Level 1 is issued as the region with greatest threat (with a borderline Level 1/2 situation) will lie outside the map.
Meteoalarm za severovzhod
velja od 21.04.2010 12:03 CET Do 21.04.2010 21:03 CET
Nevihte Stopnja ogroženosti: Rumena
en: Thunderstorms are possible, accompanied by local intense precipitation and gusty winds. sl: Možne so krajevne nevihte z lokalnimi nalivi in močnejšimi sunki vetra.
Opis vremenskega dogajanja
Sreda,21.4.2010-Dopoldan pretežno jasno ,popoldan delno do zmerno oblačno , občasno tudi pretežno oblačno vreme(zjutraj za dravo malo talne megle).Med 3-4:30 uro zjutraj ploha padlo je 2,2mm,med 15:44-16:08 manjša ploha brez merljivih količin ,ki je proti Ptuju se razvila v nevihto (4x zagrmelo).Med 17:27-18:10 nevihta( zagrmelo je okoli 13x) po nevihti še malo deževalo skupaj padlo 2,9mm ,naredila se je tudi mavrica.Zvečer med 20:05-20:55 ploha padlo je še 1,4mm,skupaj je tako padlo 6,5mm padavin.Najnižja temperatura 7,9.C najvišja pa 21,9.C.Veter je dosegel 25km/h 7,1m/s smer JZ.Vlaga max 90% min pa 39%.Rosišče max 10,5.C min 5,5.C.Sonce vzšlo ob 5:43 zašlo pa ob 19.41.
Vremenske karte
Cape +lifted index(cape je bil med 500-600 J/kg, Lifted index pa -2)
Rosišče
Maksimalna temperatura
Padavine
Radarska slika padavin(16:15 po lokalnem času)
Maksimalna odbojnost je bila 45-50 dbz
(lokalno 16:00)
Radarska slika padavin (Arso)
Ob 18:10
Ob 18:00
Med 15:44-16:08 manjša ploha brez merljivih količin ,ki je proti Ptuju se razvila v nevihto (4x zagrmelo).Maksimalna odbojnost te nevihte je bila med 35-40dbz(Spuhlja pri Ptuju,Markovci...)
Pogled proti Ptuju(2,5km južno)
Lepo razviti nevihtni oblak(Cumulonimbus)
Med 17:27-18:10 nevihta( zagrmelo je okoli 13x) po nevihti še malo deževalo skupaj padlo 2,9mm ,naredila se je tudi mavrica.
Prihod druge nevihte iz smeri Maribora
Nevihta
Mavrica
Ni komentarjev:
Objavite komentar