Nevihti 13 in 14.5.2015 na območju Ptuja in doma

Zvečer je nas obšla nevihta. Tako doma kot na Ptuju je padlo par kapelj. Zapihal je le močan SZ veter (Arso Ptuj 56km/h ,doma 27,4km/h). Odpravil sem se na kratek čejs,vendar se n iujelo nič pametnega ,saj je nevihtna linija bila prehitra. Slikanje je motil nadležen Sz veter.

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 13 May 2015 06:00 to Thu 14 May 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 12 May 2015 22:29
Forecaster: PUCIK / GROENEMEIJER

A level 2 was issued for E France, N Switzerland, SW Germany and extreme NW Austria mainly for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and to the lesser degree for excessive precipitation.

A level 2 was issued for SE Austria and SW Hungary mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for SE Germany and W Austria mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for SW Slovakia and Hungary mainly for severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and to the lesser degree for marginally large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A complex synoptic-scale scenario is forecast over Europe with a strong zonal flow forecast in between a ridge over the Mediterranean and a trough-ridge-trough complex over the northern half of Europe. Underneath the zonal flow, a diffuse frontal boundary is forecast to stall, stretching from the central France through S Germany eastwards. South of the boundary, tropical airmass will be advected in SW-ly flow from Iberia to S France and the Alpine region with EML from Iberia. With enhanced low-level moisture along the boundary, CAPE is forecast to build up along and south of the boundary underneath the strong westerly flow.

DISCUSSION

... E France through Alpine region into Hungary and SW Slovakia ...

A potentially dangerous but also highly questionable setup will develop over the region. NWP generally agrees on the impressive overlap of CAPE with strong DLS which should reach 25 - 35 m/s over the whole Level 2 area. Furthermore, as wind veers with height, SRH values should also reach above 200 m2/s2, especially near the border of Switzerland, Germany and France. The highest CAPE values are simulated over France and NW Switzerland, where the best overlap of low-level moisture and EML is likely with MLCAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg. Towards the east, CAPE will be generally less.

With diffuse boundary and no strong forcing factor, convective initiation will become a crucial factor in this setup. CIN values should decrease as geopotential heights fall during the day and heating mixes the boundary layer. However, cloud cover and potential rain along the boundary may hinder the destabilisation. Low-level convergence zones along the boundary or induced by orography will likely be the primary initiation mechanism.

Due to the impressive kinematic environment, developing storms will likely become supercells, capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. The highest threat of very large hail will be over E France, NW Switzerland and SW Germany. Towards the evening, as 850 hPa flow will increase and LLS will exceed 10 m/s. This should elevate tornado threat, which will be the highest over NW Switzerland, extreme E France and SW Germany. Storms rapidly tracking east to southeast will likely grow upscale in the evening hours, possibly forming an MCS over S Germany as PV max crosses the region. MCS could easily reach SW Slovakia and central Hungary by Thursday morning. Such MCS would pose threats of severe wind gusts as 0-3 km bulk shear exceeds 25 m/s and of excessive rainfall, especially over and close to the Alpine area.


Radarska slika v času slikanja med 20.45-21:35 uro.

Animacija prehoda padavinske slike čez SV Slovenijo

Udari strel ter satelitska slika oblačnosti

Jaz v akciji ,ter prvi preizkus dežne zaščite za fotoaparat,ki pa se ni najbolje obnesel,predvsem pri vetru.
Saj se je ob vetru  fotoaparat kljub temu tresel ,pa čeprav sem ga trdno držal,so bile slike zmazek.

Ujela se je le strela tipa clawer ,CG-jevke so pokale za gradom ter proti Ptujskim poljem. Tokrat sem izbral napačno lokacijo,upal sem namreč da bom ujel kakšno strelo nad gradom ,kar bi dodalo poseben čar. Le ko sem se peljal od doma je nad gradom udarila lepa CG-jevka žal sem bil prepozen.

Cg-jevke v ospredju luči ,ki vodijo na Puhov most

Zanimiva struktura ,nizka baza deluje kot wall cloud. Slike so nekoliko motne saj je pihal veter,kar je povzročilo tresljaje .

Zanimivi izrastki ,po vsej verjetnosti gre za scud cloud

Zapeljem se proti Dornavi,kjer še ujamem nekaj oddaljenih CG-jevk ,ki pa niso nič posebnega

Nevihta 14.5.2015 (Orešje)
Popoldan med 15:15 pa do okrog 16 ure nas je prešla manjša nevihta ,ki pa ni bila nič posebnega.(Prve 3 slike)
Kasneje je nekoliko južneje nastala še ena nevihta,ki pa je šla mimo nas. Kasneje so nastali eden lepših Pileus oblakov,kar je bilo danes še najbolj zanimivo.

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 14 May 2015 06:00 to Fri 15 May 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 14 May 2015 06:38
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for northern Italy and the north-western Balkans mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation, to a lesser extent also for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for south-eastern Fance and the northern and central Balkans mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

At the southern flank of a Scandinavian long-wave trough, an intense short-wave trough rapidly races across eastern Europe. In its wake, a cut-off low south of the UK will move south-east, crossing France during the period. Both troughs are associated with strong DCVA given the strong flow. A weak ridge will spread across France between both troughs.

At lower level, a sharp cold front extends from north-west Spain to southern France, the Alps, into the northern Balkans. Steep lapse rates south of this cold front overlap with rich low-level moisture that is situated south of the Alps, and also across the northern Balkans. Diurnal heating is most likely south of the Alps and parts of the Balkans, and CAPE can reach about 1000 J/kg according to latest GFS.

Currently, storms are going on across the northern Balkans and parts of the Alpine region. More storms forming during the period will pose a threat of severe weather due to the strong vertical wind shear.

DISCUSSION

Northern Italy into the central Balkans

An elevated mixed layer is present across the north Mediterranean indicated by latest soundings. It caps a rather moist boundary layer that will heat during the day allowing for CAPE around 1000 J/kg. From north-eastern Italy to the northern Balkans, a cold front slowly moves southward. Lapse rates will be weaker over this region, but can improve during the day in the wake of the Alps.

Current thinking is that thunderstorms evolve along and ahead of the cold front across the Balkans and over north-eastern Italy. Strong deep layer vertical wind shear (more than 20 m/s in the lowest 6 km) supports well-developed multicells, capable of producing large hail and excessive rain. Additionally, locally enhanced SRH can result in supercells with very large hail the main threat, but also tornadoes and severe wind gusts are not ruled out.

Later in the period, approaching trough and jet streak from the west will likely assist initiation further west across northern Italy. Lee cyclogenesis results in strongly veering profiles and SRH around 150 J/kg. Supercells, capable of producing very large hail. Low-level vertical wind shear is expected to be relatively weak, limiting the chance of tornadoes, but every isolated supercell that forms will also pose a tornado threat.

Increasing DCVA is expected to support rapidly clustering of the storms, forming one or two MCSs, moving south-east. Excessive precipitation, severe wind gusts, and large hail are forecast to be the main threat, but tornadoes are also not ruled out given increasing low-level vertical wind shear.

Eastern Europe

In the range of the passing short-wave trough, storms are expected to develop due to moist low-level air masses and steep mid-level lapse rates. Chances of severe convection are expected across the northern Balkan States along the cold front, where best moisture is expected and vertical wind shear is strongest with around 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km. Limiting factor will be weak diurnal heating due to convective clouds from the morning storms. A level 1 is issued mainly for large hail, but severe wind gusts and tornadoes are not ruled out completely.

Manjša nevihta med 15-16 uro je dala le 2,2mm padavin.

Pogled na na mimohod še ene nevihtne celice.

Eden lepših Pileusov v zadnjem času.

 Dežna zavesa na območju Donačke gore.

 dežna zavesa